Linux vs. Linux
Reaching such a fork may be inevitable, given the coalition of voluntary efforts that keeps Linux intact and updated. "Any time you have open source code, you're going to get forking," predicted Bill Eppifanio, an analyst at J.P. Morgan. "Forking will be just as bad for Linux as it was for Unix," he added.
Forking, or creating a new, incompatible version, is allowed under the open source programmer's creed, where any coder can do what he or she wants with the source code. But it is the example of the many incompatible versions of Unix that emerged in the '80s that plagues Linux developers, investors and information technology (IT) managers.
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In the meantime, the stakes have become enormous. Windows NT, instead of sweeping the market, held steady at 38.1 percent of server systems shipped in 1999, according to preliminary figures from International Data Corp. NetWare has declined in market share for five years in a row to 19.4 percent, while Linux has surged to the number two spot, with 24.6 percent. Unix systems have declined slightly to 15.3 percent. Linux growth is coming in at the expense of each of the other operating systems (OSes), said Benoy Tamang, vice president of marketing at Caldera Systems.
In revenue, however, Unix leads the field with about 52 percent, or $2.96 billion.
Windows NT is second with roughly 29 percent, or $1.65 billion. NetWare is third at about 18 percent, or $1.03 billion, while open source Linux weighs in at less than one percent, or just under $57 million, according to IDC's preliminary estimates. Part of Linux's rapid growth, analysts say, is the price-to-performance advantage it enjoys over proprietary OSes. Linux is...